Next Generation Maritime & Land SATCOM Terminals

skynet guat

TP Group led the concept generation and options analysis in support of the Business Case for procuring Next Generation Maritime and Land SATCOM Terminals. This was on behalf of Strategic Command as part of the wider SKYNET Programme.

Background and requirement

In the context of imminent redundancy of existing terminals, our task was to gather relevant system and user requirements, formulate options and conduct multi-strand analysis in order to make evidence-driven recommendations to inform procurement. This was as the main pillar of support to a multi-million pound project to transform SATCOM Terminal deployment across all relevant Defence platforms.

Navigating a complex stakeholder environment, we led a blended rainbow team and worked with Crown Servant and Contractor System Engineers, Front-Line users, and Cost & Schedule Risk Analysts to generate a holistic understanding of terminal cost effectiveness.

Approach

Our analysis was delivered in a series of Scrutiny-endorsed Operational Analysis Supporting Papers (OASPs) that were a key component of the successful Outline and Full Business Cases. We developed an endorsed Concept of Analysis that outlined a methodology comprising the following steps that were then successfully conducted:

  • Gathering relevant system and user requirements related to terminal size and weight constraints, survivability, Mbps bandwidth capacity, and performance characteristics, in particular related to the need for Dual Band terminals. These were expressed at threshold and objective levels in order to differentiate between options.
  • In partnership with system engineers and technology experts, we generated a series of concept options with clearly articulated characteristics (for example size and weight) with the potential to meet these requirements. This process was also informed by a TP Group-shaped industry consultation exercise to understand the existing and future market offer.
  • Performed quantified link budget demand and capacity modelling to understand the ability of each option to meet user/platform bandwidth requirements, now and in the future. The modelling incorporated differing environmental and threat conditions as well as a Monte Carlo simulation to randomise the demand signal within evidenced lower and upper limits, based on existing SKYNET Information Exchange Requirements datasets. It also incorporated a growth curve to account for expected change in demand to 2040.
  • Performed a series of qualitative analysis strands to understand the future operating environment in terms of Red threat and survivability (utilising the survivability onion approach) factors. This included designing and delivering a number of SME workshops to generate evidence.
  • Worked with cost analysts to generate costs at a unit and fleet level, making use of future force laydown material to understand the number of terminals of different sizes that would be needed to meet concurrent operations.
  • Outputs from the above steps were then used to update the terminal options and re-perform the demand and capacity analysis as our understanding of the overall requirement grew.

Outcome

Findings and recommendations were described in a series of OASPs and stakeholder briefings. A number of Combined Operational Effectiveness Investment Appraisal charts (articulating, amongst other dimensions, cost against Mbps Demand Vs Capacity) were produced. These were used as a main element of the Outline and Full Economic Business Case.

The results of this scrutiny-endorsed work, by being incorporated into the Business Cases, allowed STRATCOM to achieve funding to proceed with the procurement. By providing quantified evidence of the ability of single-band terminals to meet a majority of the Defence need to be met through single-band terminals, it also allowed a new model for terminal delivery to be agreed whereby a staged series of instalments over a long period was designed.

Furthermore, the demand and capacity simulation model developed by TP Group was later used to inform and validate aligned capacity modelling work for the entire SKYNET Space system. It was also used as part of the Information Requirement analysis element of ASTRID 175 (Future Beyond Line of Sight Communications).

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